Which country will be America’s next China?

Which country will adopt the $440 billion per year business of making cheap products and sending them to America? The news suggests maybe it’ll be India, but it could also be Mexico or Vietnam. Ryan Peason is bullish on Vietnam, highlighting its internal river network as a cheap natural infrastructure advantage. He also mentioned India has logistical issues with supply chains.

Another potential player is Indonesia, gaining share in EV battery materials like nickel and cobalt. Indonesia has over 20% of global nickel reserves, and companies like Tesla and Ford have signed sourcing deals with Indonesian firms. There might be a need for an acronym to market these countries better to investors, like ‘IVMI’ for Indonesia, Vietnam, Mexico, and India. I think we’ll see a shift in market cap away from the US, with potential upside in places like Vietnam and Indonesia.

Key considerations on where to move manufacturing

1. Cost Efficiency: Labor costs, infrastructure expenses, and operational expenditures.
2. Supply Chain Resilience: Robustness, reliability, and adaptability of supply chains.
3. Regulatory Environment: Favorable policies, tax incentives, and ease of doing business.
4. Talent Pool: Availability of skilled labor and potential for workforce development.
5. Infrastructure: Quality of transportation, logistics, and industrial facilities.
6. Market Access: Proximity to key markets and trade agreements.

Country Analysis

1. India:
   • Strengths: Large workforce, growing infrastructure, and government initiatives like “Make in India.”
   • Weaknesses: Bureaucratic hurdles, infrastructure gaps, and supply chain complexities.
     
2. Vietnam:
   • Strengths: Competitive labor costs, improving infrastructure, and favorable trade agreements (e.g., CPTPP).
   • Weaknesses: Limited scale compared to China, and dependency on specific industries (e.g., textiles).
     
3. Indonesia:
   • Strengths: Abundant natural resources, large domestic market, and infrastructure investments.
   • Weaknesses: Complex regulatory environment and infrastructure challenges.
     
4. Malaysia:
   • Strengths: Well-developed infrastructure, skilled workforce, and favorable business environment.
   • Weaknesses: Higher labor costs compared to Vietnam and Indonesia.
     

Recommendation

Based on a thorough analysis, Vietnam emerges as a compelling alternative to China for American companies. Vietnam offers a unique blend of cost efficiency, supply chain resilience, and a favorable business environment. The country’s experience in manufacturing for global brands, coupled with its strategic location in SEA, positions it as an attractive hub for diversification.

Financial Case

• Cost Savings: Vietnam’s labor costs are competitive, with an average monthly wage of approximately $200-$300, compared to $600-$800 in China.
• Infrastructure Investment: Vietnam has invested heavily in infrastructure development, including transportation networks and industrial parks.
• Tax Incentives: Vietnam offers attractive tax incentives for foreign investors, including corporate income tax exemptions and reductions.

Risk Mitigation

To mitigate risks associated with supply chain disruptions and regulatory challenges, companies can:

• Diversify suppliers and invest in local partnerships.
• Engage with government agencies to navigate regulatory complexities.
• Implement robust risk management frameworks.

Conclusion

Vietnam presents a viable alternative to China for American companies seeking to diversify their manufacturing operations. With its competitive costs, improving infrastructure, and favorable business environment, Vietnam is well-positioned to support the growth of multinational corporations. By leveraging Vietnam’s strengths, companies can achieve cost savings, enhance supply chain resilience, and capitalize on emerging market opportunities.

Recommendation

Consider Vietnam as a primary destination for shifting manufacturing operations from China. With careful planning, risk management, and strategic investment, companies can unlock the potential of Vietnam and achieve long-term success in the region.