Pakistan’s GDP Rises 3.07% in Q4FY24 with Strong Agriculture

Pakistan’s GDP witnessed a stable growth of 3.07% in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 2023-24, as per estimates approved by the National Accounts Committee (NAC). This growth was largely driven by a robust agricultural sector, which posted a notable increase of 6.76% during the same period.

The 110th meeting of the NAC, held at the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics in Islamabad, was chaired by the Secretary of the Ministry of Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives. The committee approved revised quarterly GDP growth rates for Q1, Q2, and Q3 of FY24, along with updated annual growth rates for FY23 and provisional figures for FY24.

In Q4FY24, while the agriculture sector grew by 6.76%, the industrial sector faced a contraction of 3.59%, and the services sector showed a 3.69% rise. Notably, crop production surged by 14.03%, with significant contributions from wheat, which saw a 31.58 million-ton yield. However, the decline in fruit production led to a negative growth of 1.53% in other crops.

Livestock registered a growth of 3.98%, although slightly lower than last year’s 4.31%. On the other hand, forestry posted a negative growth of 0.35% due to a high base effect.

The industrial sector faced challenges, with declines in mining and quarrying (-5.32%), electricity, gas, and water supply (-35.57%), and construction (-0.47%). Despite positive growth in large-scale manufacturing (4.19%), these losses pulled down overall industry performance.

Within the services sector, strong performances were seen in wholesale and retail trade (4.79%), information and communication (7.95%), education (9.04%), and health services (5.86%). However, finance and insurance (-2.55%) and public administration (-0.18%) experienced negative growth.

The NAC also updated the provisional GDP growth for FY24 to 2.52%, surpassing the previous estimate of 2.38%. Agriculture, industry, and services recorded growth rates of 6.36%, -1.15%, and 2.15%, respectively, for FY24.

Looking back, the economy’s performance during the first three quarters of FY24 showed revised growth rates of 2.69%, 1.97%, and 2.36%, reflecting slight improvements in agriculture and services but downward revisions in industrial activity.

The NAC acknowledged the efforts of the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, the Ministry of Planning, the Ministry of Finance, and the State Bank of Pakistan in preparing these quarterly estimates.

International institutions have varied projections for Pakistan’s future growth, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimating GDP growth at 3.2% for FY25, and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) projecting a more modest growth rate of 2.8%.

The NAC’s approval also included updates to the national statistical system, paving the way for quarterly estimates of net taxes, GDP, and gross national income (GNI).