Growth Trends In Emerging Markets And Developing Economies
Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs) play a pivotal role in the global economy, contributing significantly to global growth and stability. These economies, which include a diverse group of countries across regions, are characterized by rapid economic growth, industrialization, and varying degrees of integration into the global financial system.
In 2017, growth in Emerging Markets And Developing Economies accelerated to an estimated 4.3%, reflecting a recovery in commodity exporters and continued robust activity in commodity importers. Several factors drove this growth:
- Commodity Exporters: EMDEs that rely heavily on commodity exports accelerated growth to 1.8% in 2017, up from 0.8% in 2016. The recovery was solid in large economies such as Brazil and Russia, which emerged from recession during this period. Improved confidence, increased private consumption, and investment were key contributors to this upturn.
- Commodity Importers: In contrast, commodity-importing EMDEs maintained robust growth, supported by solid domestic demand and strong export performance. High-frequency indicators, including industrial production and purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs), reached multi-year highs, indicating continued momentum across these economies.
Outlook for EMDEs
The outlook for EMDEs remains cautiously optimistic, with growth projected to strengthen to 4.5% in 2018 and to an average of 4.7% in 2019-2020. This positive trajectory is expected as headwinds faced by commodity exporters dissipate, allowing these economies to approach their potential growth rates.
Several risks could hinder this growth:
- Investment Weakness: The long-term impact of recent investment weaknesses could slow potential growth in the coming decade.
- Productivity Slowdown: Slowing productivity growth remains a concern for sustaining long-term growth.
- Demographic Trends: Unfavorable demographic trends, particularly in aging populations, could pose challenges to maintaining growth momentum.
Challenges
EMDEs face several policy challenges that need to be addressed to sustain and enhance growth:
- Structural Reforms: Implementing structural reforms, particularly in education, could significantly impact long-term growth and poverty reduction. As the global labor force becomes more skilled, EMDEs are expected to contribute substantially to this trend. This shift could reduce global income inequality, particularly between advanced economies and EMDEs.
- Macroeconomic Stability: Ensuring macroeconomic stability through sound fiscal and monetary policies is crucial. Many EMDEs have made progress in reducing vulnerabilities by strengthening their fiscal frameworks, improving financial regulations, and diversifying their economies. However, ongoing efforts are required to build resilience against external shocks, such as fluctuating commodity prices and global financial conditions.
Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs) are set to continue their role as significant contributors to global growth. While challenges remain, particularly in terms of investment, productivity, and demographic trends, the outlook remains positive.